Visualising UK election scenarios

New Scientist last week foreshadowed today’s UK election with a look at what the scenarios are in a plurality system of government.

The piece also explains the concept of the Banzhof power index which is particularly relevant to the UK election as according to polls 1/3 of voters of UK voters are going into this election undecided on who they will vote for.

As Wikipedia explains about Banzhof:

To calculate the power of a voter using the Banzhaf index, list all the winning coalitions, then count the critical voters. A critical voter is a voter who, if he changed his vote from yes to no, would cause the measure to fail. A voter’s power is measured as the fraction of all swing votes that he could cast.

New Zealand’s situation is probably most similar to the middle chart below. National claimed 58 seats in parliament, well clear of Labour’s 43, but a further 21 seats were divided among minor parties. As it turned out, the agreements between National and Act and National and the Maori Party shored up outright support for the National Government and made ACT and the Maori Party the king makers in the 49th parliament, something that has significantly influenced the direction of government ever since whether it be Super City or Whanau Ora on the agenda…

Here’s the potential UK scenarios…

Source: New Scientist
Source: New Scientist

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